Warsaw Apartment Price Trends: Real Prices, Districts and Outlook

Warsaw apartment prices are still rising, but transaction prices are growing far more slowly than asking prices. According to NBP data for Q2 2026, the average asking price for new-build flats was PLN 18,488 per m² (+6.9% year on year), while the average price actually paid on the primary market was PLN 16,783 per m² (+2.4% year on year). In other words, developers' price lists are running ahead of what buyers end up paying at the notary.

Asking prices vs transaction prices: what the NBP data shows

Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP, Poland's central bank) publishes quarterly averages of flat prices in major cities. Its data separates ceny ofertowe (asking prices in adverts and developer price lists) from ceny transakcyjne (the prices flats actually sold for), and the rynek pierwotny (primary market, new-builds sold by developers) from the rynek wtórny (secondary market, resale).

Source: NBP, Baza cen nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, Warsaw city-wide averages for Q2 2026.

• Developer price lists are the fastest-moving number. Over the year, average asking prices on the primary market rose by 6.9%, while transaction prices rose by 2.4%. The gap between what is asked and what is paid is widening.
• Resale is calmer. Secondary-market transaction prices grew by 1.3% over the year and by 1.2% over the last quarter.
• What buyers actually pay is almost the same on both markets. The average transaction price was PLN 16,783 per m² for new-builds and PLN 16,723 per m² for resale. On paid prices, a new-build is not more expensive than a resale flat on average.

Price per m² by district: where Warsaw is cheapest and most expensive

A city-wide average says little about a specific flat. For districts, the most reliable source is the Rejestr Cen Nieruchomości, RCN (Poland's register of prices taken from the akt notarialny, the notarial deed). We analysed free-market flat sales registered from 10 November 2024 to 19 December 2025: 14,253 purchases from developers and 14,417 resales across 18 districts. Alongside them are today's asking medians from our catalogue and our estimate of gross rental yield.

Source: RCN transactions registered 10.11.2024–19.12.2025, medians adjusted by the district price index (NAWROCKI analysis); asking prices from the NAWROCKI catalogue as of 7 November 2026; yield is an agency estimate based on asking rents.

The cheapest new-build square metre in the RCN data is in Rembertów at PLN 10,347, the most expensive in Śródmieście at PLN 25,976. Every district is on our page of RCN transaction prices for all Warsaw districts, and a fuller breakdown is in our guide to Warsaw property prices per district.

Reading the table

• In outer districts, resale can cost more than new-builds. In Białołęka, Ursus and Bemowo the resale median is higher than the new-build median. New projects are often built further from established infrastructure, so compare specific addresses, not "new versus old".
• Central medians rest on few deals. Śródmieście recorded only 59 new-build transactions in the period and Żoliborz 94, so a single premium project can move the median noticeably.
• The spread matters as much as the median. In Wola, a quarter of new-build deals closed below PLN 17,643 per m² and a quarter above PLN 28,007 per m². In Białołęka the range is narrow, from PLN 11,258 to PLN 13,472 per m².

Why asking prices and transaction prices differ

The gap between RCN medians and current asking medians has several causes.

• Timing. RCN records a sale once the notarial deed is signed, so it shows the market with a delay. A price list shows what a developer is asking today.
• Negotiation and terms. A price list is a starting point. A discount often comes not as a lower price per m² but as a parking space, a storage unit (komórka lokatorska) or a more convenient payment schedule.
• Mix of supply. When several premium projects are on sale in one district, the asking median rises even if ordinary flats have not become more expensive. In Wola, the asking median is PLN 28,340 per m² against an RCN new-build median of PLN 20,714 per m².

A practical rule: if a developer's price per m² is clearly above the district's transaction median, ask why. Location, floor, view, building standard or completion date can justify it. If there is no good answer, negotiate or keep looking.

What drives price growth in a district

Warsaw does not move as one market, so look at the drivers in each area.

Metro. The M2 extension in Bemowo (stations Lazurowa, Chrzanów and Karolin) is under construction, with opening planned for 2027. A further M2 extension to Ursus is planned for 2033, and the M3 line in Praga-Południe for 2032. The market usually prices in a future station well before it opens.

Supply. Białołęka currently has 59 developments and 2,752 flats on sale, more than any other district. That much choice limits price growth and leaves room for negotiation. Śródmieście has only 6 projects and 207 flats on sale, so developers there concede less.

Flat size and format. In Wawer the new-build median is PLN 11,656 per m², but the median flat is 74.6 m² and costs about PLN 765,750. A cheap square metre does not always mean a cheap purchase.

Rental demand. Estimated gross yields range from 4.3% in Żoliborz to 7.5% in Rembertów and tend to be higher in cheaper districts. More detail is in our analysis of Warsaw rental yield by district.

Access to credit. Many expats work on B2B contracts or hold temporary residence permits, and banks assess such borrowers in their own way. Check your eligibility with a mortgage adviser early.

Forecast: what the data supports and what it does not

Nobody can give a reliable percentage for next year's price growth, and we do not publish one. The data does show a direction.

1. Growth continues but is slowing in real transactions. Quarter on quarter, primary transaction prices rose by 1.9% and secondary by 1.2%. That is steady growth, not a spike.
2. Asking prices have run ahead. While they outpace transaction prices, buyers keep negotiating room, especially where supply is large.
3. Districts with metro under construction tend to rise before opening. Waiting for a station to open usually means paying more, not less.
4. A sharp fall is unlikely without an external shock.

What matters more for a decision is how a specific flat's price compares with transactions in its own district.

How to track Warsaw prices yourself: step by step

1. Shortlist a few districts that fit your commute, schools and budget.
2. Look up the RCN transaction median for each district and note the range between the cheaper and the more expensive quarter of deals.
3. Compare it with current developer price lists in the same districts, for example on the page of new developments in Bemowo.
4. Compare like with like: price per m² with price per m², and total price with flats of a similar size.
5. Work out your monthly payment and budget in the mortgage and affordability calculator before meeting a sales office.
6. Check the new NBP data each quarter and see whether transaction prices are catching up with asking prices.
7. Before reserving, ask for the prospekt informacyjny (the developer's information prospectus) and a draft umowa deweloperska (the developer agreement), and read both before paying anything.

Common mistakes international buyers make

• Comparing a price list with the city-wide average. The Warsaw average mixes Rembertów with Śródmieście and says nothing about a particular flat.
• Thinking in your home currency. Prices, mortgages and RCN data are all in PLN; converting every offer only makes comparisons harder.
• Ignoring the data period. RCN shows past deals, price lists show today.
• Forgetting extra costs. Parking, storage and fit-out are often priced separately. Taxes and fees differ between buying from a developer and on the resale market and can depend on your situation, so confirm them with a notary or the tax office (urząd skarbowy) before you commit.

How NAWROCKI Real Estate helps you buy at a fair price

We work as a buyer's agent for new-build flats in Warsaw, and the gap between advertised and real prices is at the centre of what we do.

• We compare offers from many developers at once rather than one sales office at a time.
• We check the developer's price per m² against real notarial transactions (RCN) in the district.
• We read the umowa deweloperska and the prospekt informacyjny before you sign anything.
• We negotiate price and terms with the developer.
• We keep track of the payment schedule and help with the odbiór techniczny (technical acceptance of the flat).

In most developments we work with, the developer pays our fee, so for the buyer the service is usually free. If that is not the case for a particular flat, we tell you before we start.

If you are choosing a district or have already found a flat and want to know whether its price is fair, get in touch with our team. We will compare the offer with real transactions in the district and show you where there is room to negotiate.